Standard Chartered says bitcoin sell-off likely over, eyes year-end rally

The headline “Standard Chartered says bitcoin sell-off likely over, eyes year-end rally” has sent a fresh wave of optimism through the crypto community. After a sharp correction driven by a massive crypto market liquidation and broader macro jitters, many traders have been wondering whether bitcoin’s bull run is broken or simply catching its breath.

According to Standard Chartered Bank and its head of digital assets research, Geoffrey (Geoff) Kendrick, the answer leans strongly toward the latter. The bank has repeatedly argued that recent volatility is part of a normal bull-market correction, not the end of the cycle. In fact, it continues to project that bitcoin could reach around $200,000 by year-end, pointing to strong spot ETF inflows, corporate treasury buying, and an increasingly supportive macro backdrop.

In this article, we will unpack why Standard Chartered believes the worst of the bitcoin sell-off is behind us, what underpins its bullish bitcoin price forecast, which catalysts could fuel a powerful year-end rally, and what risks investors still need to keep in mind. The goal is not to hype the market, but to understand the bank’s thesis so you can better form your own view on where bitcoin may be headed next.

Why Standard Chartered Thinks the Bitcoin Sell-Off Is Largely Over  Standard Chartered says bitcoin

Standard  Chartered’s call that the bitcoin sell-off is likely over is not just a gut feeling. It is grounded in how the bank interprets recent price action, market structure, and historical patterns from previous bull cycles.

The recent crash as a classic bull-market correction Standard Chartered says bitcoin

In October 2025, bitcoin went through a violent downturn linked to roughly $19 billion in crypto liquidations across futures and leveraged positions. That move dragged BTC from all-time highs above $120,000 down toward the low $100,000s and even briefly below in some trading sessions.

To many observers, it felt like the start of a deeper bear market. Standard Chartered took a different view. In its research notes, the bank highlighted that:

Bitcoin’s drawdown was similar in scale to prior corrections within the same cycle. Geoffrey Kendrick pointed out that the pullback resembled earlier 10–20% retracements seen over the last couple of years, which were followed by renewed highs rather than a prolonged bear market.

The bank’s analysis frames the crash as a “deleveraging event”. Excess speculation in derivatives was flushed out, funding rates normalized, and speculative longs were shaken from the market. By clearing out leverage, the sell-off effectively reset the market, creating a healthier foundation for the next leg higher.

In other words, what looked like the beginning of the end may instead have been a classic bull-market shakeout, the kind that forces out weak hands and gives long-term buyers a chance to accumulate at a discount.

Positioning, sentiment, and the end of forced selling

Another pillar of Standard Chartered’s view that the sell-off is largely over is the apparent exhaustion of forced selling. Earlier this year, the bank warned about the risk of a macro-driven sell-off, where rising yields and risk-off sentiment could push bitcoin below key support levels.

After the October washout, however, the mood changed. Futures open interest declined, funding rates cooled, and large liquidations subsided. This suggested that much of the forced or panic selling had already happened. With fewer highly leveraged traders left to be liquidated, the probability of another cascading crash decreased.

At the same time, sentiment indicators and on-chain data began to stabilize. Long-term holders were not capitulating on-chain; instead, they appeared to accumulate more aggressively during the downturn. Combined, these factors led the bank to argue that the worst phase of the bitcoin sell-off had passed, even if volatility remained elevated.

Standard Chartered’s Year-End Bitcoin Rally Forecast Standard Chartered says bitcoin

If the sell-off is largely behind us, the next question is obvious: what does Standard Chartered see ahead?

A $135K–$200K roadmap for bitcoin

Over the course of 2025, Standard Chartered has steadily refined and reaffirmed its bullish bitcoin price prediction. The bank now expects BTC to reach around $135,000 by the end of Q3 and to climb toward $200,000 by year-end, assuming conditions such as ETF inflows and macro easing remain supportive.

Earlier notes already pointed toward this range: the bank first raised its year-end bitcoin forecast to $150,000 in 2024, and then extended its outlook to $200,000 for the peak of the current cycle, projecting that bitcoin could eventually settle around that level as a long-term equilibrium.

Today, the messaging is consistent. Despite the $19 billion sell-off and short-term volatility, Standard Chartered maintains that bitcoin is still on track for its year-end rally and potentially the largest dollar-value surge in its history during the second half of 2025.

Why the bank thinks bitcoin can still rally hard

Several forces anchor the bank’s confidence in a year-end rally:

First, spot bitcoin ETFs continue to attract strong net inflows after only brief periods of outflows during times of political or macro uncertainty. Kendrick and his team highlight that ETF flows, alongside corporate treasury purchases, represent a new, more stable source of demand that did not exist in previous cycles.

Second, the bank notes that the post-halving pattern may be changing. Historically, bitcoin peaks roughly 12–18 months after a halving event, then enters a multi-year bear market. Standard Chartered believes that ETF demand, institutional interest, and broader macro adoption are gradually breaking this rigid cycle. Bitcoin, in their view, is behaving more like a macro asset or “digital gold”, influenced by liquidity and policy decisions rather than a strict four-year rhythm.

Third, the bank sees a supportive environment in the broader crypto market recovery. Other assets, such as ether, have also seen upgraded forecasts, with Standard Chartered lifting its 2025 target for ETH to $7,500 amid expectations of rapid growth in the stable coin and staking ecosystem. This contributes to a broader thesis that digital assets as a whole are moving deeper into mainstream finance.

Put simply, the bank’s call that “bitcoin sell-off likely over, eyes year-end rally” is based on more than emotion. It rests on structural demand from ETFs, changing market cycles, and a macro environment that increasingly favors scarce, non-sovereign assets.

Macro Backdrop: From Headwind to Tailwind

No bitcoin price forecast is complete without considering the macro picture. Standard Chartered’s bullish view is closely tied to what it expects from interest rates, policy, and global risk appetite.

The role of interest rates and liquidity

A key plank of the bank’s argument is that the same macro forces that hurt bitcoin during parts of the cycle could now begin to help it. Bitcoin’s sharpest drawdowns in the last two years often coincided with rising real yields, concerns about Federal Reserve independence, and tightening liquidity.

As the Federal Reserve moves closer to rate cuts and markets gradually price in easier policy, Standard Chartered believes liquidity will become more supportive for risk assets, including digital assets. If real yields decline and inflation expectations remain anchored, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bitcoin diminishes.

The bank also notes that bitcoin’s behavior is increasingly similar to that of a high-beta macro asset: it tends to benefit when liquidity is abundant and real yields fall, much like high-growth equities did in previous cycles, but with an additional scarcity narrative baked in.

Policy, regulation, and institutional adoption

Standard Chartered’s analysts also factor in the shift in regulatory tone and policy attitudes, particularly in the United States. A more predictable framework for stablecoins, clearer rules for digital asset custody, and the rise of state-level and federal initiatives around bitcoin reserves or crypto-friendly regulation can all reinforce institutional confidence.

Institutional investors, such as asset managers, pension funds, and even sovereign entities, often entering through regulated spot ETFs.

Corporate treasuries, which are gradually allocating a portion of their reserves to bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement and geopolitical risk.

This broadening base of demand is central to Standard Chartered’s long-term bitcoin forecast, which extends beyond 2025 and envisions potential prices of $300,000–$500,000 over the next several years, assuming continued adoption.

What Standard Chartered’s Outlook Means for Different Investors

Even if you agree that the bitcoin sell-off is likely over, it does not automatically tell you what to do. The implications of Standard Chartered’s view differ for short-term traders, long-term holders, and institutions.

Short-term traders: volatility is feature, not bug Standard Chartered says bitcoin

You should expect sharp rallies and equally sharp pullbacks as markets oscillate between fear and greed.
>You must be extremely careful with leverage, as the recent $19 billion liquidation event showed how quickly over-leveraged positions can be wiped out.

While the bank’s thesis is bullish, it does not promise a straight line upward. In practice, many short-term traders will continue to experience the bull market as a series of jagged waves.

Long-term holders and corporate treasuries

For long-term investors and corporates, Standard Chartered’s outlook is more about structural adoption than day-to-day price swings. The bank’s message is that, despite periodic sell-offs, the fundamental thesis behind bitcoin as “digital gold” remains intact and may even be strengthening.

In this context, the notion that the sell-off is over and the market has been “reset” can be read as an argument that long-term dollar-cost averaging or strategic accumulation remains rational, so long as:

Allocations are sized appropriately relative to overall portfolio risk.
Investors are prepared for multi-year volatility, not just a short sprint to a year-end target.

For corporate treasuries, the bank’s research continues to emphasize the role of bitcoin as part of a broader risk-management toolkit, particularly in a world where fiat currencies face political and fiscal uncertainty.

Risks That Could Derail the Year-End Bitcoin Rally

No bitcoin price prediction is guaranteed, and Standard Chartered is the first to acknowledge that. Even as it repeats that the bitcoin sell-off is likely over, the bank outlines several risks that could derail the anticipated rally.

Macro and policy shocks

The most obvious risks are macro and political. If inflation resurges and forces central banks to keep rates higher for longer, or if a major geopolitical crisis sparks a sustained flight to ultra-safe assets, bitcoin could struggle to maintain its upward momentum.

Policy shocks are another concern. While regulation is trending toward clarity, an unexpected crackdown in a major market or a surprise tax regime on digital assets could temporarily chill institutional inflows and weaken the crypto market recovery.

Market structure, leverage, and ETF dynamics

There are also open questions about how spot bitcoin ETFs will behave in extreme conditions. While they have so far channeled record inflows and deepened liquidity, an abrupt shift in sentiment could lead to accelerated redemptions, amplifying downside pressure.

In short, even a strong fundamental thesis does not remove risk. It simply frames the probabilities differently.

How to Think About Bitcoin After the Sell-Off

Given Standard Chartered’s stance that the bitcoin sell-off is likely over and a year-end rally remains in play, how should investors think about bitcoin today?

Building a long-term thesis, not chasing headlines

The first step is to distinguish between the headline and the underlying thesis. The headline says that Standard Chartered expects bitcoin to recover and potentially race toward $200,000 by year-end. The deeper thesis says that:

Bitcoin is increasingly treated as a macro hedge and digital store of value.
Institutional demand via ETFs and corporate treasuries is transforming market structure.
Volatility, including sharp corrections like the recent one, is part of how this new asset class matures.

If you are considering exposure to bitcoin, it is usually more productive to focus on whether you believe in that long-term transformation, rather than on any single short-term price target.

Practical ways to handle volatility

From a practical standpoint, investors who align with Standard Chartered’s long-term optimism often adopt strategies that are less sensitive to timing, such as:

Gradual accumulation over months or years instead of lump-sum bets on a near-term rally.
Portfolio caps that keep bitcoin at a manageable percentage of total assets.
Clear rules about when to rebalance or trim exposure after large moves.

These approaches do not guarantee success, but they can help investors avoid the most common pitfalls of buying emotional tops and panic-selling during crashes.

None of this is financial advice, and every investor’s situation is different. However, understanding why a global bank like Standard Chartered believes the recent bitcoin sell-off is largely over can offer useful context as you refine your own strategy.

Conclusion

Standard Chartered’s message is clear: despite a bruising sell-off driven by a $19 billion liquidation wave and macro uncertainty, the bank believes bitcoin’s bull market remains intact and that the correction has likely run its course.

That does not mean the road ahead will be smooth. Bitcoin remains a volatile, high-risk asset, and future shocks—whether macro, regulatory, or market-structure related—could still trigger sharp pullbacks.

FAQs

Q. Why does Standard Chartered say the bitcoin sell-off is likely over?
>>>>>>>>>>>>Standard Chartered argues that the recent drop in bitcoin was primarily a deleveraging event, triggered by about $19 billion in crypto liquidations and a normalization of overheated futures markets.

ata-start=”16920″ data-end=”17472″>The bank’s latest outlook suggests that bitcoin could reach roughly $135,000 by the end of Q3 and climb toward $200,000 by year-end, assuming continued ETF inflows, supportive macro conditions, and growing institutional adoption.

ata-start=”17474″ data-end=”18009″>Q. What role do spot bitcoin ETFs play in the year-end rally thesis?
Spot bitcoin ETFs are central to the bank’s bullish case. Standard Chartered sees them as a major structural source of demand that channels institutional and retail capital through a regulated wrapper.

Q. Could bitcoin still fall further even if the sell-off is “over”?
Yes. When Standard Chartered says the sell-off is “likely over,” it is referring to the most acute phase of forced selling, not to the end of all downside volatility. The bank has explicitly warned that bitcoin could still dip below $100,000 in the short term before resuming its climb toward its year-end target. Short-term traders should therefore expect continued volatility and use leverage with extreme caution.

Q. Is this a signal for me to buy bitcoin now?
Not necessarily. Standard Chartered’s research reflects its own models and assumptions, and while it paints a bullish outlook for bitcoin, it does not remove the asset’s high risk. Whether to invest depends on your financial situation, risk tolerance, time horizon, and understanding of the crypto space.